Directional Bias
Directional bias is a trader’s expectation about the likely direction of price movement. It can be bullish, bearish, or neutral and influences strategy selection and position sizing.
Sources of Bias
- Trend analysis
- Fundamental catalysts
- Market sentiment and positioning
- Macroeconomic conditions
Use in Trading
A clear directional bias helps align entry timing, risk management, and exit planning. It also determines whether strategies should be directional or market neutral.
Bias Validation
Bias should be tested against objective indicators such as trend structure, momentum, or relative strength. Conflicting signals should reduce position size or delay entry.
Risks
Bias can become anchored and cause traders to ignore new information. It is important to update bias when market conditions change.
Practical Notes
Documenting the reasons for a bias can improve discipline and reduce emotional decision making. Regular review helps prevent stale assumptions.
Operational Notes
Definitions and conventions should be consistent across datasets and venues. A small difference in data fields or session boundaries can change outcomes, especially for short term strategies. Document inputs and assumptions so results can be reproduced.
If the concept depends on exchange rules or broker behavior, confirm those rules for the specific venue. Operational details often explain why a trade behaved differently than expected.
Stress Scenarios
During volatility spikes, liquidity can evaporate and price gaps can appear. Under these conditions, indicators can lag, order types can misfire, and spreads can widen sharply.
Stress testing the concept against fast markets, thin liquidity, and sudden news helps reveal hidden risks. If a strategy only works in calm conditions, size and timing should reflect that.
Documentation Tips
Keep a short checklist of the rules, parameters, and decision points. Record how the concept is used in live trading and compare it to backtest assumptions. This makes future refinement easier and reduces drift in execution.
Common Questions
Traders often ask how sensitive results are to parameter choices, how the concept behaves in different regimes, and whether it scales with size. Answering these questions early improves reliability and prevents overfitting.
Checklist
- Define the exact rule in plain language
- Validate data quality and timing
- Quantify execution costs
- Set risk limits and stop logic
- Review performance by regime
Checklist
- Define the exact rule in plain language
- Validate data quality and timing
- Quantify execution costs
- Set risk limits and stop logic
- Review performance by regime
Checklist
- Define the exact rule in plain language
- Validate data quality and timing
- Quantify execution costs
- Set risk limits and stop logic
- Review performance by regime
Checklist
- Define the exact rule in plain language
- Validate data quality and timing
- Quantify execution costs
- Set risk limits and stop logic
- Review performance by regime
Checklist
- Define the exact rule in plain language
- Validate data quality and timing
- Quantify execution costs
- Set risk limits and stop logic
- Review performance by regime
Checklist
- Define the exact rule in plain language
- Validate data quality and timing
- Quantify execution costs
- Set risk limits and stop logic
- Review performance by regime
Checklist
- Define the exact rule in plain language
- Validate data quality and timing
- Quantify execution costs
- Set risk limits and stop logic
- Review performance by regime
Checklist
- Define the exact rule in plain language
- Validate data quality and timing
- Quantify execution costs
- Set risk limits and stop logic
- Review performance by regime
Checklist
- Define the exact rule in plain language
- Validate data quality and timing
- Quantify execution costs
- Set risk limits and stop logic
- Review performance by regime
Checklist
- Define the exact rule in plain language
- Validate data quality and timing
- Quantify execution costs
- Set risk limits and stop logic
- Review performance by regime
Checklist
- Define the exact rule in plain language
- Validate data quality and timing
- Quantify execution costs
- Set risk limits and stop logic
- Review performance by regime
Checklist
- Define the exact rule in plain language
- Validate data quality and timing
- Quantify execution costs
- Set risk limits and stop logic
- Review performance by regime
Checklist
- Define the exact rule in plain language
- Validate data quality and timing
- Quantify execution costs
- Set risk limits and stop logic
- Review performance by regime
Checklist
- Define the exact rule in plain language
- Validate data quality and timing
- Quantify execution costs
- Set risk limits and stop logic
- Review performance by regime
Checklist
- Define the exact rule in plain language
- Validate data quality and timing
- Quantify execution costs
- Set risk limits and stop logic
- Review performance by regime